Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on November 11?

7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $409 held · ends Nov 11

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$408.57

Combined PnL

$33.71

Smart Money Entry

91¢ → 99.8¢

+10% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 7 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$408.57

Total Shares412

Combined PnL+$33.71

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 89.9¢	$323.7	$357.12	+$33.42	29% 237-575 (812)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$14.84	$14.88	+$0.04	99% 196-1 (197)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 95.6¢	$12.33	$12.64	+$0.31	54% 383-321 (704)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99¢	$10.06	$10.04	-$0.02	41% 299-433 (732)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$5.99	$5.97	-$0.02	39% 303-465 (768)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$5.06	$5.04	-$0.02	30% 2617-6186 (8803)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$2.89	$2.88	-$0.01	45% 273-328 (601)

241532532432

Invested

$323.7

Value

$357.12

PnL

+$33.42

Record

29%

237-575 (812)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$14.84

Value

$14.88

PnL

+$0.04

Record

99%

196-1 (197)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$12.33

Value

$12.64

PnL

+$0.31

Record

54%

383-321 (704)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$10.06

Value

$10.04

PnL

-$0.02

Record

41%

299-433 (732)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$5.99

Value

$5.97

PnL

-$0.02

Record

39%

303-465 (768)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$5.06

Value

$5.04

PnL

-$0.02

Record

30%

2617-6186 (8803)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$2.89

Value

$2.88

PnL

-$0.01

Record

45%

273-328 (601)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 7 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.