Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on November 11?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $460 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$459.92
$53.12
86.9¢ → 97.8¢
+12% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 85.5¢ | $308.18 | $354.87 | +$46.69 | 29% 237-575 (812) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $54 | $59.04 | +$5.04 | 82% 506-111 (617) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 93.8¢ | $36.74 | $38.16 | +$1.43 | 54% 383-322 (705) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $5.02 | $4.98 | -$0.04 | 30% 2617-6186 (8803) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $2.86 | $2.86 | +$0 | 39% 309-489 (798) |
Invested
$308.18
Value
$354.87
PnL
+$46.69
Record
29%
237-575 (812)
Invested
$54
Value
$59.04
PnL
+$5.04
Record
82%
506-111 (617)
Invested
$36.74
Value
$38.16
PnL
+$1.43
Record
54%
383-322 (705)
Invested
$5.02
Value
$4.98
PnL
-$0.04
Record
30%
2617-6186 (8803)
Invested
$2.86
Value
$2.86
PnL
+$0
Record
39%
309-489 (798)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.