Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on November 11?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 92¢ · $632 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$631.78
$56.01
78.1¢ → 91.5¢
+17% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 77.3¢ | $504.68 | $555.41 | +$50.73 | 29% 237-575 (812) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 84.5¢ | $41.76 | $44.31 | +$2.54 | 82% 506-111 (617) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 78.2¢ | $17.04 | $19.9 | +$2.86 | 54% 383-322 (705) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $4.78 | $4.78 | +$0 | 39% 309-489 (798) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $4.74 | $4.67 | -$0.08 | 30% 2617-6186 (8803) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $2.76 | $2.72 | -$0.04 | 41% 299-433 (732) |
Invested
$504.68
Value
$555.41
PnL
+$50.73
Record
29%
237-575 (812)
Invested
$41.76
Value
$44.31
PnL
+$2.54
Record
82%
506-111 (617)
Invested
$17.04
Value
$19.9
PnL
+$2.86
Record
54%
383-322 (705)
Invested
$4.78
Value
$4.78
PnL
+$0
Record
39%
309-489 (798)
Invested
$4.74
Value
$4.67
PnL
-$0.08
Record
30%
2617-6186 (8803)
Invested
$2.76
Value
$2.72
PnL
-$0.04
Record
41%
299-433 (732)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.