Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on November 11?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 62¢ · $870 held · ends Nov 11

Yes38¢No62¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$869.66

Combined PnL

-$15.27

Smart Money Entry

74¢ → 62¢

-16% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes38%

No62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$207.43

Total Shares308

Combined PnL-$35.16

Yes1 trader

Total Value$63.54

Total Shares174

Combined PnL+$19.88

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Noavg 69.1¢	$591.38	$598.7	+$7.32	29% 237-575 (812)
└ No leg	Noavg 69.1¢	$514.65	$461.9	-$52.75
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 21.3¢	$76.73	$136.8	+$60.07
HE hello.67	Noavg 74.9¢	$185.19	$153.38	-$31.81	69% 2062-948 (3010)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 25.1¢	$43.66	$63.54	+$19.88	59% 1019-705 (1724)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 72¢	$28.3	$28.27	-$0.03	82% 506-111 (617)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 76.2¢	$22.47	$14.52	-$3.37	54% 383-321 (704)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 62¢	$3.16	$3.16	+$0	30% 2617-6186 (8803)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 62¢	$3.14	$3.14	-$0	39% 309-489 (798)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 61¢	$3.06	$3.11	+$0.05	39% 303-465 (768)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 62¢	$1.84	$1.84	+$0	39% 624-957 (1581)

241532532432ARB<$100

Invested

$591.38

Value

$598.7

PnL

+$7.32

Record

29%

237-575 (812)

Both legs:

No$514.6569.1¢-$52.75

Yes$76.7321.3¢+$60.07

hello.67

Invested

$185.19

Value

$153.38

PnL

-$31.81

Record

69%

2062-948 (3010)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.66

Value

$63.54

PnL

+$19.88

Record

59%

1019-705 (1724)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$28.3

Value

$28.27

PnL

-$0.03

Record

82%

506-111 (617)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$22.47

Value

$14.52

PnL

-$3.37

Record

54%

383-321 (704)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$3.16

Value

$3.16

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

2617-6186 (8803)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$3.14

Value

$3.14

PnL

-$0

Record

39%

309-489 (798)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$3.06

Value

$3.11

PnL

+$0.05

Record

39%

303-465 (768)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$1.84

Value

$1.84

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

624-957 (1581)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 62%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.2%

62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$55.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

155.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.