Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on November 11?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 75¢ · $421 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$420.72
$26.04
75.5¢ → 74.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Noavg 75.1¢ | $258.59 | $256.63 | -$1.96 | 59% 1019-705 (1724) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.3¢ | $64.84 | $95.39 | +$30.55 | 24% 163-516 (679) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 77.4¢ | $59.28 | $57.1 | -$2.18 | 69% 2060-944 (3004) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22.6¢ | $8.22 | $8.25 | +$0.03 | 85% 441-76 (517) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $3.74 | $3.36 | -$0.38 | 51% 263-254 (517) |
Invested
$258.59
Value
$256.63
PnL
-$1.96
Record
59%
1019-705 (1724)
Invested
$64.84
Value
$95.39
PnL
+$30.55
Record
24%
163-516 (679)
Invested
$59.28
Value
$57.1
PnL
-$2.18
Record
69%
2060-944 (3004)
Invested
$8.22
Value
$8.25
PnL
+$0.03
Record
85%
441-76 (517)
Invested
$3.74
Value
$3.36
PnL
-$0.38
Record
51%
263-254 (517)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.