Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C on November 10?

12 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $567 held · ends Nov 10

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$566.78

Combined PnL

$1.37

Smart Money Entry

99.4¢ → 99.2¢

+0% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 12 top traders (100%)10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$566.78

Total Shares569

Combined PnL+$1.37

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO northdrawer	Noavg 99.4¢	$223.65	$224.1	+$0.45	11% 28-230 (258)
Lucerys	Noavg 99.6¢	$163.12	$163.19	+$0.07	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$50.59	$50.6	+$0.01	28% 153-400 (553)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$25.01	$25.06	+$0.05	4% 15-322 (337)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$24.85	$24.9	+$0.05	30% 174-414 (588)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$22.68	$22.66	-$0.02	30% 2360-5638 (7998)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$18.76	$18.79	+$0.04	52% 5134-4698 (9832)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 94.9¢	$14.24	$14.94	+$0.71	51% 197-186 (383)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$11.14	$11.16	+$0.01	36% 462-806 (1268)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$6.97	$6.97	+$0	35% 138-259 (397)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$2.75	$2.75	+$0	34% 150-294 (444)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$1.65	$1.65	+$0	31% 163-361 (524)

northdrawer

Invested

$223.65

Value

$224.1

PnL

+$0.45

Record

11%

28-230 (258)

Lucerys

Invested

$163.12

Value

$163.19

PnL

+$0.07

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$50.59

Value

$50.6

PnL

+$0.01

Record

28%

153-400 (553)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$25.01

Value

$25.06

PnL

+$0.05

Record

15-322 (337)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$24.85

Value

$24.9

PnL

+$0.05

Record

30%

174-414 (588)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$22.68

Value

$22.66

PnL

-$0.02

Record

30%

2360-5638 (7998)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$18.76

Value

$18.79

PnL

+$0.04

Record

52%

5134-4698 (9832)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$14.24

Value

$14.94

PnL

+$0.71

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$11.14

Value

$11.16

PnL

+$0.01

Record

36%

462-806 (1268)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$6.97

Value

$6.97

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

138-259 (397)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.75

PnL

+$0

Record

34%

150-294 (444)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$1.65

Value

$1.65

PnL

+$0

Record

31%

163-361 (524)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 12 top traders (100%)10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.