Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 5°C on November 10?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.5¢ · $11 held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$11.35
-$1.95
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $11.05 | $11.22 | +$0.23 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.1 | $0.1 | -$1.7 | 4% 17-463 (480) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.03 | $0.03 | -$0.48 | 30% 2360-5638 (7998) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.