Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on October 29?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 0.5¢ · $154 held · ends Oct 29

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$154.37

Combined PnL

-$55.07

Smart Money Entry

40.2¢ → 0.5¢

-99% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$96.3

Total Shares401

Combined PnL-$57.96

No2 traders

Total Value$58.07

Total Shares65

Combined PnL+$2.89

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 46.2¢	$91.13	$47.37	-$43.76	60% 1670-1125 (2795)
fildoroCTR<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$57.31	$42.98	-$14.33	62% 1435-880 (2315)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 80.6¢	$44.4	$42.84	+$2.94	53% 6405-5609 (12014)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 69¢	$18.75	$15.23	-$0.05	23% 287-958 (1245)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 23.5¢	$5.82	$5.95	+$0.13	57% 13340-10198 (23538)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$91.13

Value

$47.37

PnL

-$43.76

Record

60%

1670-1125 (2795)

fildoroCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$57.31

Value

$42.98

PnL

-$14.33

Record

62%

1435-880 (2315)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$44.4

Value

$42.84

PnL

+$2.94

Record

53%

6405-5609 (12014)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$18.75

Value

$15.23

PnL

-$0.05

Record

23%

287-958 (1245)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.82

Value

$5.95

PnL

+$0.13

Record

57%

13340-10198 (23538)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6253.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

6353.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.