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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.

Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 1°C on November 8?

Resolved No. 38% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

8

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0

Combined PnL

-$21.16

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares233

Combined PnL-$21.16

No5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares0

Combined PnL+$0

Yes — 38%No — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$21.16	—	-$21.16	50% 21518-21342 (42860)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	—	—	+$0	46% 6878-8119 (14997)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	—	—	+$0	55% 25544-21102 (46646)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	—	—	+$0	35% 1117-2064 (3181)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	—	—	+$0	46% 6182-7381 (13563)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	—	—	+$0	43% 15307-20676 (35983)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	—	—	+$0	45% 16706-20276 (36982)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	—	—	+$0	43% 5533-7231 (12764)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Invested

$21.16

Value

—

PnL

-$21.16

Record

50%

21518-21342 (42860)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

6878-8119 (14997)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

25544-21102 (46646)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

1117-2064 (3181)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

6182-7381 (13563)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

15307-20676 (35983)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

16706-20276 (36982)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

5533-7231 (12764)

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x1eb581b3...9387a2

Slug

highest-temperature-in-moscow-on-november-8-2026-1c

Traders in this Market

quietparcel

Yes — $0

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

No — $0

graynotebook19

No — $0

anothercoin

Yes — $0

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702

Yes — $0

godblessme2026

No — $0

smallreceipt

No — $0

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

No — $0

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