Will the highest temperature in Moscow be -1°C on November 6?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 99¢ · $161 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 25%
$160.74
-$17.56
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Noavg 99.8¢ | $79.85 | $159.12 | +$0.16 | 97% 277-8 (285) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.6¢ | $10.61 | $0.88 | -$9.73 | 72% 13933-5547 (19480) |
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $0.46 | $0.52 | -$8 | 38% 7326-11761 (19087) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $0.05 | $0.05 | +$0.01 | 42% 903-1231 (2134) |
Invested
$79.85
Value
$159.12
PnL
+$0.16
Record
97%
277-8 (285)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$10.61
Value
$0.88
PnL
-$9.73
Record
72%
13933-5547 (19480)
Invested
$0.46
Value
$0.52
PnL
-$8
Record
38%
7326-11761 (19087)
Invested
$0.05
Value
$0.05
PnL
+$0.01
Record
42%
903-1231 (2134)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.