Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 1°C on November 4?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 100¢ · $135 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$135.02
-$0.06
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Mature
18h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SM smallreceipt | No | $124.49 | $124.49 | +$0 | 49% 8663-9182 (17845) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $80.81 | $5 | +$0.16 | 78% 12157-3379 (15536) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $4.95 | $5 | +$0.05 | 49% 555-588 (1143) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.33 | $0.07 | -$0.26 | 20% 2544-10095 (12639) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.01 | $0 | -$0.01 | 58% 19232-14159 (33391) |
Invested
$124.49
Value
$124.49
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
8663-9182 (17845)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$80.81
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.16
Record
78%
12157-3379 (15536)
Invested
$4.95
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.05
Record
49%
555-588 (1143)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.33
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$0.26
Record
20%
2544-10095 (12639)
Invested
$0.01
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.01
Record
58%
19232-14159 (33391)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.