Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 6°C on November 2?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 100¢ · $232 held · ended Nov 2

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

Total Value

$232.1

Combined PnL

$17.73

Smart Money Entry

80.5¢ → 99.9¢

+24% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$230.31

Total Shares233

Combined PnL+$42.52

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.8

Total Shares278

Combined PnL-$24.79

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+18 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI Bilberry	Noavg 78.7¢	$167.06	$209.86	+$42.8	53% 3389-3008 (6397)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$10.25	$10.29	+$0.04	35% 710-1327 (2037)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$5.45	$5.13	-$0.31	35% 558-1046 (1604)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.02	$5.02	-$0	37% 758-1274 (2032)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$2.44	$1.25	-$1.18	41% 943-1365 (2308)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 26.6¢	$17.65	$0.27	-$16.82	60% 2354-1539 (3893)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$6.12	$0.12	-$5.57	55% 561-452 (1013)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$0.24	$0.1	-$0.65	46% 1569-1829 (3398)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$0.82	$0.06	-$0.58	57% 17248-12904 (30152)

Bilberry

Invested

$167.06

Value

$209.86

PnL

+$42.8

Record

53%

3389-3008 (6397)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$10.25

Value

$10.29

PnL

+$0.04

Record

35%

710-1327 (2037)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$5.45

Value

$5.13

PnL

-$0.31

Record

35%

558-1046 (1604)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$5.02

Value

$5.02

PnL

-$0

Record

37%

758-1274 (2032)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.44

Value

$1.25

PnL

-$1.18

Record

41%

943-1365 (2308)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.65

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$16.82

Record

60%

2354-1539 (3893)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.12

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$5.57

Record

55%

561-452 (1013)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.24

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$0.65

Record

46%

1569-1829 (3398)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.82

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0.58

Record

57%

17248-12904 (30152)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+18 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.