Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on November 2?

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (69%) · No at 96¢ · $505 held · ends Nov 2

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 69%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$504.74

Combined PnL

$21.3

Smart Money Entry

76.6¢ → 95.5¢

+25% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$343.02

Total Shares360

Combined PnL+$24.32

Yes4 traders

Total Value$20.71

Total Shares145

Combined PnL-$3.02

No — 69%Yes — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BilberryARB<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$92.62	$141.01	+$48.39	53% 3389-3008 (6397)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 19¢	$56.02	$108.93	+$52.88
└ No leg	Noavg 71.8¢	$36.57	$32.09	-$4.48
PO Poligarch	Noavg 72.9¢	$122.69	$126.23	+$3.54	54% 7712-6458 (14170)
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f<$100	Noavg 74¢	$58.08	$65.12	+$8.21	58% 1615-1157 (2772)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 92.4¢	$36.94	$38.19	+$1.25	55% 25961-21246 (47207)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 76.5¢	$29.14	$30.46	+$1.32	41% 943-1365 (2308)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 75.9¢	$49.39	$25.85	+$6.86	57% 17248-12904 (30152)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 81.5¢	$22.02	$23.67	+$1.66	35% 558-1046 (1604)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 75.5¢	$12.48	$15.8	+$3.32	42% 1898-2621 (4519)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 72.1¢	$18.23	$13.69	-$0.82	17% 402-1972 (2374)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 16.9¢	$11.32	$8.7	-$2.63	46% 1569-1829 (3398)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 27.5¢	$5.55	$5.63	+$0.08	60% 2354-1539 (3893)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$13.46	$5.47	+$1.31	53% 7528-6656 (14184)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 83¢	$5.03	$4.02	-$1.01	37% 685-1150 (1835)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 13.2¢	$2.69	$0.91	-$1.78	35% 710-1327 (2037)

BilberryARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$92.62

Value

$141.01

PnL

+$48.39

Record

53%

3389-3008 (6397)

Both legs:

Yes$56.0219¢+$52.88

No$36.5771.8¢-$4.48

Poligarch

Invested

$122.69

Value

$126.23

PnL

+$3.54

Record

54%

7712-6458 (14170)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f<$100

Invested

$58.08

Value

$65.12

PnL

+$8.21

Record

58%

1615-1157 (2772)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$36.94

Value

$38.19

PnL

+$1.25

Record

55%

25961-21246 (47207)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$29.14

Value

$30.46

PnL

+$1.32

Record

41%

943-1365 (2308)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$49.39

Value

$25.85

PnL

+$6.86

Record

57%

17248-12904 (30152)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$22.02

Value

$23.67

PnL

+$1.66

Record

35%

558-1046 (1604)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$12.48

Value

$15.8

PnL

+$3.32

Record

42%

1898-2621 (4519)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$18.23

Value

$13.69

PnL

-$0.82

Record

17%

402-1972 (2374)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.32

Value

$8.7

PnL

-$2.63

Record

46%

1569-1829 (3398)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.55

Value

$5.63

PnL

+$0.08

Record

60%

2354-1539 (3893)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.46

Value

$5.47

PnL

+$1.31

Record

53%

7528-6656 (14184)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.03

Value

$4.02

PnL

-$1.01

Record

37%

685-1150 (1835)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.69

Value

$0.91

PnL

-$1.78

Record

35%

710-1327 (2037)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.