Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 2°C on November 2?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 90¢ · $145 held · ends Nov 2

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$145.02

Combined PnL

$15.24

Smart Money Entry

87.9¢ → 89.7¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$123.95

Total Shares138

Combined PnL+$4.33

Yes2 traders

Total Value$21.07

Total Shares205

Combined PnL+$10.91

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock	Noavg 88¢	$140.95	$119.01	+$4.07	57% 17226-12892 (30118)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.8¢	$2.67	$19.52	+$11.02	50% 2032-1997 (4029)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 85.1¢	$4.68	$4.93	+$0.25	54% 7342-6317 (13659)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$1.66	$1.55	-$0.11	53% 7522-6644 (14166)

ghorrock

Invested

$140.95

Value

$119.01

PnL

+$4.07

Record

57%

17226-12892 (30118)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.67

Value

$19.52

PnL

+$11.02

Record

50%

2032-1997 (4029)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$4.68

Value

$4.93

PnL

+$0.25

Record

54%

7342-6317 (13659)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.66

Value

$1.55

PnL

-$0.11

Record

53%

7522-6644 (14166)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.1%

89.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.