Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 5°C on November 16?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 70¢ · $227 held · ends Nov 16

Yes31¢No69¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$227.26

Combined PnL

-$13.86

Smart Money Entry

72.2¢ → 69.5¢

-4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$183.02

Total Shares265

Combined PnL-$8.5

Yes3 traders

Total Value$44.24

Total Shares151

Combined PnL-$5.36

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HA haveagoodday	Noavg 83¢	$112.09	$93.15	-$18.94	42% 1715-2341 (4056)
BI Bilberry<$100	Noavg 48.1¢	$29.05	$41.69	+$12.64	42% 62-84 (146)
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100	Yesavg 31.8¢	$44.6	$41.44	-$3.16	66% 90-47 (137)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 70¢	$20.87	$20.57	-$0.3	32% 1142-2481 (3623)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 70¢	$14	$13.8	-$0.2	53% 7612-6705 (14317)
LE LesterDiamond<$100	Noavg 85¢	$8.51	$6.91	-$1.6	31% 43-97 (140)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 70¢	$7	$6.9	-$0.1	36% 355-623 (978)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 49.5¢	$9.16	$2.51	-$2.39	53% 2392-2134 (4526)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.1	$0.3	+$0.2	42% 5253-7309 (12562)

haveagoodday

Invested

$112.09

Value

$93.15

PnL

-$18.94

Record

42%

1715-2341 (4056)

Bilberry<$100

Invested

$29.05

Value

$41.69

PnL

+$12.64

Record

42%

62-84 (146)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.6

Value

$41.44

PnL

-$3.16

Record

66%

90-47 (137)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$20.87

Value

$20.57

PnL

-$0.3

Record

32%

1142-2481 (3623)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$14

Value

$13.8

PnL

-$0.2

Record

53%

7612-6705 (14317)

LesterDiamond<$100

Invested

$8.51

Value

$6.91

PnL

-$1.6

Record

31%

43-97 (140)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

Value

$6.9

PnL

-$0.1

Record

36%

355-623 (978)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.16

Value

$2.51

PnL

-$2.39

Record

53%

2392-2134 (4526)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.3

PnL

+$0.2

Record

42%

5253-7309 (12562)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.