Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Moscow be -1°C on November 15?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $35 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 89%

Total Value

$35.09

Combined PnL

-$19.76

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$34.98

Total Shares35

Combined PnL+$0.02

Yes8 traders

Total Value$0.11

Total Shares219

Combined PnL-$19.77

No — 11%Yes — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$34.97	$34.98	+$0.02	99% 1531-23 (1554)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.63	$0.04	-$7.59	36% 291-514 (805)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.09	$0.02	-$4.07	52% 917-858 (1775)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.73	$0.02	-$2.71	17% 95-455 (550)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.13	$0.01	-$2.12	28% 3272-8320 (11592)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.21	$0.01	-$1.2	35% 3870-7164 (11034)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.91	$0.01	-$0.9	30% 1154-2705 (3859)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.73	$0	-$0.72	24% 767-2452 (3219)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$0	-$0.45	36% 1600-2790 (4390)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$34.97

Value

$34.98

PnL

+$0.02

Record

99%

1531-23 (1554)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.63

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$7.59

Record

36%

291-514 (805)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.09

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$4.07

Record

52%

917-858 (1775)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.73

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.71

Record

17%

95-455 (550)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.13

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.12

Record

28%

3272-8320 (11592)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.21

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.2

Record

35%

3870-7164 (11034)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.9

Record

30%

1154-2705 (3859)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.73

Value

PnL

-$0.72

Record

24%

767-2452 (3219)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

PnL

-$0.45

Record

36%

1600-2790 (4390)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.