Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on November 15?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 100¢ · $127 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 89%
$126.73
-$4.01
99.8¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $49.85 | $49.95 | +$0.1 | 38% 308-501 (809) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $25.02 | $25.01 | -$0.01 | 47% 870-964 (1834) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $14.98 | $14.99 | +$0 | 28% 1077-2772 (3849) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $15.3 | $10.16 | -$0.47 | 52% 916-856 (1772) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $15.64 | $9.87 | -$1.18 | 28% 3267-8302 (11569) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $7.97 | $7.97 | -$0 | 24% 762-2435 (3197) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 | 47% 1212-1371 (2583) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $3.5 | $3.5 | +$0 | 99% 1517-23 (1540) |
ME merodCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.73 | $0.29 | -$2.44 | 17% 94-454 (548) |
Invested
$49.85
Value
$49.95
PnL
+$0.1
Record
38%
308-501 (809)
Invested
$25.02
Value
$25.01
PnL
-$0.01
Record
47%
870-964 (1834)
Invested
$14.98
Value
$14.99
PnL
+$0
Record
28%
1077-2772 (3849)
Invested
$15.3
Value
$10.16
PnL
-$0.47
Record
52%
916-856 (1772)
Invested
$15.64
Value
$9.87
PnL
-$1.18
Record
28%
3267-8302 (11569)
Invested
$7.97
Value
$7.97
PnL
-$0
Record
24%
762-2435 (3197)
Invested
$5
Value
$5
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
1212-1371 (2583)
Invested
$3.5
Value
$3.5
PnL
+$0
Record
99%
1517-23 (1540)
Invested
$2.73
Value
$0.29
PnL
-$2.44
Record
17%
94-454 (548)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
god83743894
No — $49.95
0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023
No — $25.01
graynotebook19
No — $14.99
0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343
No — $10.16
qwen300.fund
No — $9.87
luciebot
No — $7.97
0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225
No — $5
1DVSBSTD
No — $3.5
merod
CTRYes — $0.29