Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 6°C on November 15?

11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $159 held · ends Nov 15

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$158.73

Combined PnL

-$0.24

Smart Money Entry

99¢ → 99¢

+0% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 11 top traders (100%)11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$158.73

Total Shares160

Combined PnL-$0.24

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$49.18	$49.75	+$0.57	34% 333-661 (994)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99¢	$33.64	$33.81	+$0.17	31% 1102-2456 (3558)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$19.76	$19.76	-$0	50% 894-902 (1796)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$10.13	$10.07	-$0.06	47% 1212-1371 (2583)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$9.85	$9.95	+$0.1	28% 1077-2772 (3849)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$23.35	$9.77	-$0.95	28% 3267-8302 (11569)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$7.94	$7.9	-$0.04	24% 762-2435 (3197)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$5.16	$5.14	-$0.03	53% 882-796 (1678)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$5.11	$5.11	-$0	59% 843-574 (1417)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$4.98	$4.98	+$0	49% 828-850 (1678)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$2.5	$2.5	-$0	99% 1517-23 (1540)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$49.18

Value

$49.75

PnL

+$0.57

Record

34%

333-661 (994)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$33.64

Value

$33.81

PnL

+$0.17

Record

31%

1102-2456 (3558)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$19.76

Value

$19.76

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

894-902 (1796)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$10.13

Value

$10.07

PnL

-$0.06

Record

47%

1212-1371 (2583)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$9.85

Value

$9.95

PnL

+$0.1

Record

28%

1077-2772 (3849)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$23.35

Value

$9.77

PnL

-$0.95

Record

28%

3267-8302 (11569)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$7.94

Value

$7.9

PnL

-$0.04

Record

24%

762-2435 (3197)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$5.16

Value

$5.14

PnL

-$0.03

Record

53%

882-796 (1678)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$5.11

Value

$5.11

PnL

-$0

Record

59%

843-574 (1417)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$4.98

Value

$4.98

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

828-850 (1678)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$0

Record

99%

1517-23 (1540)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 11 top traders (100%)11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.