Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 5°C on November 15?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 95¢ · $94 held · ends Nov 15

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$93.8

Combined PnL

-$1.5

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$88.27

Total Shares92

Combined PnL-$0.93

Yes2 traders

Total Value$5.53

Total Shares65

Combined PnL-$0.57

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 92.7¢	$26.86	$27.82	+$0.96	28% 1077-2772 (3849)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 90.1¢	$21.64	$19.61	-$2.03	52% 2195-1999 (4194)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 96¢	$9.77	$9.62	-$0.15	59% 843-574 (1417)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 95¢	$22.3	$9.33	+$0.4	28% 3267-8302 (11569)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 96¢	$7.66	$7.58	-$0.08	24% 762-2435 (3197)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 95¢	$4.88	$4.86	-$0.03	49% 828-850 (1678)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 93¢	$4.65	$4.73	+$0.07	57% 812-615 (1427)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 96¢	$4.8	$4.73	-$0.08	36% 1600-2790 (4390)
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.1¢	$4.34	$3.66	-$0.68	68% 89-42 (131)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$1.76	$1.87	+$0.11	42% 760-1068 (1828)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$26.86

Value

$27.82

PnL

+$0.96

Record

28%

1077-2772 (3849)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$21.64

Value

$19.61

PnL

-$2.03

Record

52%

2195-1999 (4194)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$9.77

Value

$9.62

PnL

-$0.15

Record

59%

843-574 (1417)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$22.3

Value

$9.33

PnL

+$0.4

Record

28%

3267-8302 (11569)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$7.66

Value

$7.58

PnL

-$0.08

Record

24%

762-2435 (3197)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$4.88

Value

$4.86

PnL

-$0.03

Record

49%

828-850 (1678)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$4.65

Value

$4.73

PnL

+$0.07

Record

57%

812-615 (1427)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.73

PnL

-$0.08

Record

36%

1600-2790 (4390)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.34

Value

$3.66

PnL

-$0.68

Record

68%

89-42 (131)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.76

Value

$1.87

PnL

+$0.11

Record

42%

760-1068 (1828)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.2%

95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.