Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (68%). 10 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on November 15?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 32¢ · $109 held · ends Nov 15

Yes68¢No32¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$108.69

Combined PnL

-$12.52

Smart Money Entry

42.8¢ → 32¢

-25% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 32%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 68%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes68%

No32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$108.69

Total Shares349

Combined PnL-$12.52

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Noavg 42.4¢	$93.46	$68.32	-$25.14	42% 754-1062 (1816)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$46	$16.69	-$14.28	30% 251-582 (833)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 54.2¢	$20.1	$8.2	-$6.06	53% 2122-1900 (4022)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$6.3	$4.65	-$1.65	34% 329-653 (982)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$26.86	$3.1	+$34.71	36% 286-506 (792)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$1.7	$1.59	-$0.1	58% 820-591 (1411)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 31¢	$1.59	$1.59	+$0	57% 800-608 (1408)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 31¢	$1.59	$1.59	+$0	47% 1197-1366 (2563)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 31¢	$1.55	$1.55	+$0	52% 865-790 (1655)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 31¢	$1.4	$1.4	+$0	49% 877-897 (1774)

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$93.46

Value

$68.32

PnL

-$25.14

Record

42%

754-1062 (1816)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Invested

$46

Value

$16.69

PnL

-$14.28

Record

30%

251-582 (833)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$20.1

Value

$8.2

PnL

-$6.06

Record

53%

2122-1900 (4022)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Invested

$6.3

Value

$4.65

PnL

-$1.65

Record

34%

329-653 (982)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Invested

$26.86

Value

$3.1

PnL

+$34.71

Record

36%

286-506 (792)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$1.7

Value

$1.59

PnL

-$0.1

Record

58%

820-591 (1411)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$1.59

Value

$1.59

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

800-608 (1408)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$1.59

Value

$1.59

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

1197-1366 (2563)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$1.55

Value

$1.55

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

865-790 (1655)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$1.4

Value

$1.4

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

877-897 (1774)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 32%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 68%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.1%

32.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$193.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

293.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.