Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 3°C on November 15?

14 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 64¢ · $153 held · ends Nov 15

Yes36¢No64¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$152.55

Combined PnL

-$14.61

Smart Money Entry

73.1¢ → 64¢

-12% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 14 top traders (100%)13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes36%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$152.55

Total Shares211

Combined PnL-$14.61

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 72.6¢	$47.91	$47.75	-$0.16	34% 306-590 (896)
Haradwaith	Noavg 82.6¢	$107.55	$22.44	-$17.42	29% 266-655 (921)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 71.4¢	$13.25	$13.22	-$0.03	52% 2195-1999 (4194)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 69.8¢	$12.59	$13.05	+$0.47	34% 333-661 (994)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 70¢	$10.52	$10.71	+$0.19	71% 919-377 (1296)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 65.7¢	$6.8	$7.38	+$0.58	50% 894-902 (1796)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 92.2¢	$9.22	$7.24	-$1.98	33% 80-164 (244)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 66.8¢	$15.68	$7.04	+$2.56	28% 3267-8302 (11569)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 62.4¢	$4.98	$5.3	+$0.32	24% 762-2435 (3197)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 72.4¢	$3.72	$3.84	+$0.12	47% 1212-1371 (2583)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 77¢	$3.85	$3.73	-$0.12	59% 843-574 (1417)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 72.4¢	$3.59	$3.7	+$0.11	65% 4359-2377 (6736)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 64.6¢	$3.24	$3.58	+$0.34	57% 812-615 (1427)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 62.8¢	$3.14	$3.57	+$0.42	36% 1600-2790 (4390)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$47.91

Value

$47.75

PnL

-$0.16

Record

34%

306-590 (896)

Haradwaith

Invested

$107.55

Value

$22.44

PnL

-$17.42

Record

29%

266-655 (921)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$13.25

Value

$13.22

PnL

-$0.03

Record

52%

2195-1999 (4194)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$12.59

Value

$13.05

PnL

+$0.47

Record

34%

333-661 (994)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$10.52

Value

$10.71

PnL

+$0.19

Record

71%

919-377 (1296)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$6.8

Value

$7.38

PnL

+$0.58

Record

50%

894-902 (1796)

123987456<$100

Invested

$9.22

Value

$7.24

PnL

-$1.98

Record

33%

80-164 (244)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$15.68

Value

$7.04

PnL

+$2.56

Record

28%

3267-8302 (11569)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$4.98

Value

$5.3

PnL

+$0.32

Record

24%

762-2435 (3197)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$3.72

Value

$3.84

PnL

+$0.12

Record

47%

1212-1371 (2583)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$3.85

Value

$3.73

PnL

-$0.12

Record

59%

843-574 (1417)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$3.59

Value

$3.7

PnL

+$0.11

Record

65%

4359-2377 (6736)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$3.24

Value

$3.58

PnL

+$0.34

Record

57%

812-615 (1427)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$3.14

Value

$3.57

PnL

+$0.42

Record

36%

1600-2790 (4390)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 14 top traders (100%)13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.1%

64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$51.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

151.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.