Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 2°C on November 15?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 100¢ · $116 held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$115.54

Combined PnL

-$10.69

Smart Money Entry

99.2¢ → 100¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$115.49

Total Shares116

Combined PnL+$0.76

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.05

Total Shares97

Combined PnL-$11.44

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$59.81	$59.88	+$0.07	31% 1122-2474 (3596)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$15.15	$15.29	+$0.14	57% 836-638 (1474)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$11.07	$11.09	+$0.02	47% 1242-1391 (2633)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$10.69	$10.93	+$0.24	34% 352-671 (1023)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$7.86	$8.01	+$0.15	35% 330-600 (930)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99¢	$5.14	$5.18	+$0.04	58% 864-619 (1483)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98¢	$5.02	$5.11	+$0.09	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$11.41	$0.02	-$4.14	24% 788-2560 (3348)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.18	$0.02	-$3.16	42% 5212-7125 (12337)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$25.42	$0.01	-$4.14	28% 3298-8406 (11704)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$59.81

Value

$59.88

PnL

+$0.07

Record

31%

1122-2474 (3596)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$15.15

Value

$15.29

PnL

+$0.14

Record

57%

836-638 (1474)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$11.07

Value

$11.09

PnL

+$0.02

Record

47%

1242-1391 (2633)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$10.69

Value

$10.93

PnL

+$0.24

Record

34%

352-671 (1023)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$7.86

Value

$8.01

PnL

+$0.15

Record

35%

330-600 (930)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$5.14

Value

$5.18

PnL

+$0.04

Record

58%

864-619 (1483)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$5.02

Value

$5.11

PnL

+$0.09

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.41

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$4.14

Record

24%

788-2560 (3348)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.18

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.16

Record

42%

5212-7125 (12337)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.42

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$4.14

Record

28%

3298-8406 (11704)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.