Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (97%). 6 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 6°C on November 14?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (55%) · Yes at 3.4¢ · $142 held · ends Nov 14

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 55%

Total Value

$142.03

Combined PnL

$29.83

Research grade

AvoidYes at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$139.25

Total Shares148

Combined PnL+$27.33

Yes6 traders

Total Value$2.71

Total Shares94

Combined PnL+$2.5

No — 45%Yes — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 86¢	$48.52	$54.09	+$5.57	49% 731-768 (1499)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 68¢	$32.2	$42.97	+$10.77	33% 220-451 (671)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 71.8¢	$17.09	$21.6	+$4.51	53% 6888-6032 (12920)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 81.9¢	$28.03	$17.6	+$4.12	65% 4289-2310 (6599)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 64.7¢	$9.48	$2.99	+$2.37	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 33.3¢	$13.65	$0.9	-$12.75	40% 620-939 (1559)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 10.4¢	$2.64	$0.86	-$1.77	51% 742-710 (1452)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$94.04	$0.39	+$17.24	36% 3727-6719 (10446)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$0.55	$0.21	-$0.34	58% 699-503 (1202)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$0.11	$0.18	+$0.06	58% 679-500 (1179)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$0.11	$0.17	+$0.06	46% 1071-1282 (2353)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$48.52

Value

$54.09

PnL

+$5.57

Record

49%

731-768 (1499)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$32.2

Value

$42.97

PnL

+$10.77

Record

33%

220-451 (671)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$17.09

Value

$21.6

PnL

+$4.51

Record

53%

6888-6032 (12920)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$28.03

Value

$17.6

PnL

+$4.12

Record

65%

4289-2310 (6599)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$9.48

Value

$2.99

PnL

+$2.37

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.65

Value

$0.9

PnL

-$12.75

Record

40%

620-939 (1559)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.64

Value

$0.86

PnL

-$1.77

Record

51%

742-710 (1452)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$94.04

Value

$0.39

PnL

+$17.24

Record

36%

3727-6719 (10446)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.55

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$0.34

Record

58%

699-503 (1202)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.11

Value

$0.18

PnL

+$0.06

Record

58%

679-500 (1179)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.11

Value

$0.17

PnL

+$0.06

Record

46%

1071-1282 (2353)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance4.6%

3.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2069.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

2169.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.