Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (97%). 9 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 5°C on November 14?

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 3.5¢ · $122 held · ends Nov 14

Yes97¢No3¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$121.84

Combined PnL

$11.7

Research grade

AvoidNo at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 15 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 97%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$103.4

Total Shares106

Combined PnL+$46.27

No9 traders

Total Value$18.4

Total Shares206

Combined PnL-$34.57

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 44%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 88¢	$35.2	$33.67	+$3.43	65% 4289-2310 (6599)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Yesavg 90¢	$25.12	$25.87	+$0.75	58% 699-503 (1202)
Haradwaith<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$61.57	$17.92	+$41.16	31% 146-327 (473)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Yesavg 97¢	$10.85	$10.11	-$0.73	51% 782-754 (1536)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 87.3¢	$17.69	$8.89	+$1.06	72% 823-323 (1146)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Yesavg 88¢	$6.32	$6.93	+$0.61	58% 679-500 (1179)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Noavg 43.5¢	$17.4	$5.2	-$12.2	40% 620-939 (1559)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 29.2¢	$11.1	$4.94	-$6.16	53% 6888-6032 (12920)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Noavg 55¢	$11.47	$2.71	-$8.76	40% 36-54 (90)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Noavg 59¢	$10.24	$2.26	-$7.99	34% 231-458 (689)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 24¢	$16.95	$1.81	-$12.75	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 13¢	$2.36	$0.64	-$1.72	48% 757-814 (1571)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 13¢	$1.32	$0.35	-$0.96	49% 731-768 (1499)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Noavg 13¢	$1.32	$0.29	+$0.78	63% 714-428 (1142)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$9.39	$0.21	+$15.18	26% 548-1574 (2122)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.2

Value

$33.67

PnL

+$3.43

Record

65%

4289-2310 (6599)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.12

Value

$25.87

PnL

+$0.75

Record

58%

699-503 (1202)

Haradwaith<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.57

Value

$17.92

PnL

+$41.16

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.85

Value

$10.11

PnL

-$0.73

Record

51%

782-754 (1536)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.69

Value

$8.89

PnL

+$1.06

Record

72%

823-323 (1146)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.32

Value

$6.93

PnL

+$0.61

Record

58%

679-500 (1179)

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$17.4

Value

$5.2

PnL

-$12.2

Record

40%

620-939 (1559)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$11.1

Value

$4.94

PnL

-$6.16

Record

53%

6888-6032 (12920)

BilberryCTR<$100

Invested

$11.47

Value

$2.71

PnL

-$8.76

Record

40%

36-54 (90)

god83743894CTR<$100

Invested

$10.24

Value

$2.26

PnL

-$7.99

Record

34%

231-458 (689)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$16.95

Value

$1.81

PnL

-$12.75

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$2.36

Value

$0.64

PnL

-$1.72

Record

48%

757-814 (1571)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$1.32

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$0.96

Record

49%

731-768 (1499)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Invested

$1.32

Value

$0.29

PnL

+$0.78

Record

63%

714-428 (1142)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Invested

$9.39

Value

$0.21

PnL

+$15.18

Record

26%

548-1574 (2122)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 15 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 97%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 44%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance4.7%

3.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2020.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

2120.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.