Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 2°C on November 14?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (70%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $127 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 70%

Total Value

$127.42

Combined PnL

-$31.36

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$127.3

Total Shares127

Combined PnL+$0.06

Yes7 traders

Total Value$0.12

Total Shares246

Combined PnL-$31.42

No — 30%Yes — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$79.92	$79.96	+$0.04	99% 1195-12 (1207)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.97	$29.99	+$0.02	30% 1026-2400 (3426)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$17.34	$17.35	+$0.01	34% 263-518 (781)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$53	$0.04	-$11.14	36% 3727-6719 (10446)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.62	$0.04	-$6.59	31% 146-327 (473)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.61	$0.01	-$2.6	44% 5031-6456 (11487)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.44	$0.01	-$2.42	26% 548-1574 (2122)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.91	$0.01	-$1.9	27% 667-1774 (2441)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$48.4	$0.01	-$6.6	29% 3158-7813 (10971)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.18	$0	-$0.18	63% 714-428 (1142)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$79.92

Value

$79.96

PnL

+$0.04

Record

99%

1195-12 (1207)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$29.97

Value

$29.99

PnL

+$0.02

Record

30%

1026-2400 (3426)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$17.34

Value

$17.35

PnL

+$0.01

Record

34%

263-518 (781)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$11.14

Record

36%

3727-6719 (10446)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.62

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$6.59

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.61

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.6

Record

44%

5031-6456 (11487)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.44

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.42

Record

26%

548-1574 (2122)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.91

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.9

Record

27%

667-1774 (2441)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.4

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$6.6

Record

29%

3158-7813 (10971)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.18

Value

PnL

-$0.18

Record

63%

714-428 (1142)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.