Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 1°C on November 14?

1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (11%) · No at 100¢ · $125 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 11%

Total Value

$125.14

Combined PnL

-$35.69

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$124.94

Total Shares125

Combined PnL+$0.06

Yes8 traders

Total Value$0.2

Total Shares395

Combined PnL-$35.76

No — 11%Yes — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.9¢	$124.88	$124.94	+$0.06	99% 1195-12 (1207)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$11.22	$0.06	-$11.16	36% 3727-6719 (10446)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.66	$0.04	-$6.63	29% 3158-7813 (10971)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.62	$0.04	-$6.59	31% 146-327 (473)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.31	$0.02	-$4.28	28% 1014-2623 (3637)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.61	$0.01	-$2.6	44% 5036-6461 (11497)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.44	$0.01	-$2.42	26% 548-1574 (2122)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.91	$0.01	-$1.9	27% 667-1774 (2441)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.18	$0	-$0.18	63% 714-428 (1142)

1DVSBSTD

Invested

$124.88

Value

$124.94

PnL

+$0.06

Record

99%

1195-12 (1207)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.22

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$11.16

Record

36%

3727-6719 (10446)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.66

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$6.63

Record

29%

3158-7813 (10971)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.62

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$6.59

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.31

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$4.28

Record

28%

1014-2623 (3637)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.61

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.6

Record

44%

5036-6461 (11497)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.44

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.42

Record

26%

548-1574 (2122)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.91

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.9

Record

27%

667-1774 (2441)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.18

Value

PnL

-$0.18

Record

63%

714-428 (1142)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.