Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 5°C on November 13?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 78¢ · $236 held · ended Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$235.78
$24.64
73.6¢ → 78¢
+6% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Mature
32h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
3 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI BilberryCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25.1¢ | $81 | $93.67 | +$12.67 | 40% 32-49 (81) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $43.8 | $47.87 | +$4.07 | 53% 6646-5820 (12466) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 71.4¢ | $41.46 | $40.71 | +$4.47 | 73% 795-298 (1093) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 78.6¢ | $20.78 | $21.1 | +$0.32 | 57% 2248-1724 (3972) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 76.9¢ | $17.06 | $16.32 | +$1.7 | 53% 1374-1218 (2592) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 27.7¢ | $45.41 | $8.37 | -$0.9 | 39% 579-908 (1487) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $4.88 | $5.98 | +$1.11 | 65% 4263-2287 (6550) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.55 | $1.76 | +$1.21 | 31% 114-255 (369) |
Invested
$81
Value
$93.67
PnL
+$12.67
Record
40%
32-49 (81)
Invested
$43.8
Value
$47.87
PnL
+$4.07
Record
53%
6646-5820 (12466)
Invested
$41.46
Value
$40.71
PnL
+$4.47
Record
73%
795-298 (1093)
Invested
$20.78
Value
$21.1
PnL
+$0.32
Record
57%
2248-1724 (3972)
Invested
$17.06
Value
$16.32
PnL
+$1.7
Record
53%
1374-1218 (2592)
Invested
$45.41
Value
$8.37
PnL
-$0.9
Record
39%
579-908 (1487)
Invested
$4.88
Value
$5.98
PnL
+$1.11
Record
65%
4263-2287 (6550)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$0.55
Value
$1.76
PnL
+$1.21
Record
31%
114-255 (369)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.