Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on November 13?

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (22%) · Yes at 51¢ · $515 held · ended Nov 13

Yes51¢No49¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 22%

Total Value

$515.17

Combined PnL

$70.89

Smart Money Entry

45¢ → 50.9¢

+13% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes51%

No49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$396.91

Total Shares708

Combined PnL+$78.4

No7 traders

Total Value$118.26

Total Shares276

Combined PnL-$7.52

Yes — 22%No — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Yesavg 44.5¢	$166.22	$209.48	+$43.26	58% 2224-1622 (3846)
24 241532532432	Yesavg 45.6¢	$152.28	$187.42	+$35.14	38% 543-874 (1417)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Noavg 51.5¢	$64	$50.43	-$13.57	39% 31-48 (79)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 51¢	$30.6	$24.36	-$6.24	53% 6618-5816 (12434)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Noavg 51¢	$68.55	$17.99	-$0.19	30% 108-251 (359)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 36.1¢	$19.85	$9.97	+$17.58	29% 3079-7466 (10545)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 58.9¢	$10.86	$7.48	-$3.38	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 51.3¢	$9.05	$7.16	-$1.89	73% 778-291 (1069)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Noavg 40.6¢	$0.68	$0.86	+$0.18	37% 165-281 (446)

hello.67

Yes

Invested

$166.22

Value

$209.48

PnL

+$43.26

Record

58%

2224-1622 (3846)

241532532432

Yes

Invested

$152.28

Value

$187.42

PnL

+$35.14

Record

38%

543-874 (1417)

BilberryCTR<$100

Invested

$64

Value

$50.43

PnL

-$13.57

Record

39%

31-48 (79)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$30.6

Value

$24.36

PnL

-$6.24

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Invested

$68.55

Value

$17.99

PnL

-$0.19

Record

30%

108-251 (359)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$19.85

Value

$9.97

PnL

+$17.58

Record

29%

3079-7466 (10545)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$10.86

Value

$7.48

PnL

-$3.38

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$9.05

Value

$7.16

PnL

-$1.89

Record

73%

778-291 (1069)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Invested

$0.68

Value

$0.86

PnL

+$0.18

Record

37%

165-281 (446)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 51%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.2%

50.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$87.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

188.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.