Will the highest temperature in Moscow be -3°C or below on November 12?
1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (13%) · No at 100¢ · $189 held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 13%
$189.13
-$12.31
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
13% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Noavg 99.9¢ | $188.94 | $189.06 | +$0.11 | 99% 675-8 (683) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $6.23 | $0.03 | -$6.19 | 30% 2961-6982 (9943) |
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $3.73 | $0.02 | -$3.71 | 62% 473-292 (765) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.19 | $0.01 | -$1.19 | 34% 528-1025 (1553) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $0.05 | $0.01 | -$0.05 | 53% 922-814 (1736) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.45 | $0 | -$0.45 | 39% 1399-2234 (3633) |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.45 | $0 | -$0.45 | 18% 81-367 (448) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.39 | $0 | -$0.39 | 47% 4825-5515 (10340) |
Invested
$188.94
Value
$189.06
PnL
+$0.11
Record
99%
675-8 (683)
Invested
$6.23
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$6.19
Record
30%
2961-6982 (9943)
Invested
$3.73
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$3.71
Record
62%
473-292 (765)
Invested
$1.19
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.19
Record
34%
528-1025 (1553)
Invested
$0.05
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.05
Record
53%
922-814 (1736)
Invested
$0.45
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.45
Record
39%
1399-2234 (3633)
Invested
$0.45
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.45
Record
18%
81-367 (448)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$0.39
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.39
Record
47%
4825-5515 (10340)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.