Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 5°C on November 12?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $58 held · ends Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$58.2

Combined PnL

$0.01

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$58.15

Total Shares58

Combined PnL+$0.03

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0.05

Total Shares33

Combined PnL-$0.02

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-50 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.12	$29.11	-$0.01	45% 512-638 (1150)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$13.52	$13.55	+$0.03	53% 6071-5438 (11509)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$10.5	$10.5	-$0	99% 649-8 (657)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$4.98	$4.99	+$0.01	26% 117-337 (454)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.03	$0.02	-$0.01	48% 481-525 (1006)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.02	$0.02	-$0.01	62% 463-283 (746)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.01	$0.01	-$0	42% 827-1152 (1979)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.01	$0.01	+$0	48% 498-549 (1047)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$29.12

Value

$29.11

PnL

-$0.01

Record

45%

512-638 (1150)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$13.52

Value

$13.55

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

6071-5438 (11509)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$10.5

Value

$10.5

PnL

-$0

Record

99%

649-8 (657)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$4.98

Value

$4.99

PnL

+$0.01

Record

26%

117-337 (454)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.01

Record

48%

481-525 (1006)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.01

Record

62%

463-283 (746)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0

Record

42%

827-1152 (1979)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

498-549 (1047)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-50 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.