Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on November 12?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 99¢ · $107 held · ends Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 55%

Total Value

$107.14

Combined PnL

$0.33

Smart Money Entry

98.6¢ → 99.1¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$106.81

Total Shares108

Combined PnL+$0.53

Yes5 traders

Total Value$0.33

Total Shares33

Combined PnL-$0.2

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-45 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$52.7	$53.02	+$0.32	53% 6071-5438 (11509)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$29.06	$28.86	-$0.2	62% 463-283 (746)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$9.75	$9.97	+$0.22	53% 905-797 (1702)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 98¢	$4.9	$4.98	+$0.08	17% 92-449 (541)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$4.87	$4.98	+$0.11	35% 407-742 (1149)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$5	$4.98	-$0.02	99% 649-8 (657)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$0.38	$0.15	-$0.23	42% 827-1152 (1979)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$0.03	$0.05	+$0.02	48% 498-549 (1047)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$0.03	$0.05	+$0.02	45% 512-638 (1150)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.03	$0.05	+$0.03	48% 481-525 (1006)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$0.06	$0.03	-$0.04	58% 468-339 (807)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$52.7

Value

$53.02

PnL

+$0.32

Record

53%

6071-5438 (11509)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$29.06

Value

$28.86

PnL

-$0.2

Record

62%

463-283 (746)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$9.75

Value

$9.97

PnL

+$0.22

Record

53%

905-797 (1702)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$4.9

Value

$4.98

PnL

+$0.08

Record

17%

92-449 (541)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$4.87

Value

$4.98

PnL

+$0.11

Record

35%

407-742 (1149)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

Value

$4.98

PnL

-$0.02

Record

99%

649-8 (657)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.38

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$0.23

Record

42%

827-1152 (1979)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.05

PnL

+$0.02

Record

48%

498-549 (1047)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.05

PnL

+$0.02

Record

45%

512-638 (1150)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.05

PnL

+$0.03

Record

48%

481-525 (1006)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.04

Record

58%

468-339 (807)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-45 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.