Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (96%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 3°C on November 12?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 3.6¢ · $67 held · ends Nov 12

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 88%

Total Value

$66.61

Combined PnL

$1.89

Research grade

AvoidYes at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$61.96

Total Shares65

Combined PnL+$9.87

Yes7 traders

Total Value$4.65

Total Shares83

Combined PnL-$7.99

No — 13%Yes — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+28 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 83.6¢	$72.08	$61.96	+$9.87	53% 6071-5438 (11509)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 18.6¢	$9.13	$3.07	-$6.06	63% 2135-1236 (3371)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$0.92	$0.68	-$0.25	62% 463-283 (746)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$0.26	$0.22	-$0.03	58% 468-339 (807)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$0.3	$0.22	-$0.08	45% 512-638 (1150)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$0.25	$0.22	-$0.03	63% 463-277 (740)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$19.62	$0.12	-$1.5	35% 407-742 (1149)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$0.15	$0.11	-$0.04	47% 533-613 (1146)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$72.08

Value

$61.96

PnL

+$9.87

Record

53%

6071-5438 (11509)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.13

Value

$3.07

PnL

-$6.06

Record

63%

2135-1236 (3371)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.92

Value

$0.68

PnL

-$0.25

Record

62%

463-283 (746)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.26

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$0.03

Record

58%

468-339 (807)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$0.08

Record

45%

512-638 (1150)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.25

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$0.03

Record

63%

463-277 (740)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.62

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$1.5

Record

35%

407-742 (1149)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$0.04

Record

47%

533-613 (1146)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+28 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance4.9%

3.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1952.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

2052.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.