Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (58%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 2°C on November 12?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 42¢ · $102 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$101.85
-$2.62
Research grade
NeutralNo at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 58%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Noavg 45.2¢ | $44.16 | $41.57 | -$2.59 | 68% 2063-953 (3016) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Noavg 42.6¢ | $25.19 | $25.11 | -$0.08 | 31% 285-621 (906) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 48.8¢ | $15.24 | $13.44 | -$1.8 | 53% 5657-5082 (10739) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Yesavg 56.5¢ | $11.83 | $12.15 | +$0.32 | 80% 558-142 (700) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 41.5¢ | $8.81 | $7 | +$1.78 | 54% 553-471 (1024) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $2.82 | $2.58 | -$0.24 | 37% 3197-5378 (8575) |
Invested
$44.16
Value
$41.57
PnL
-$2.59
Record
68%
2063-953 (3016)
Invested
$25.19
Value
$25.11
PnL
-$0.08
Record
31%
285-621 (906)
Invested
$15.24
Value
$13.44
PnL
-$1.8
Record
53%
5657-5082 (10739)
Invested
$11.83
Value
$12.15
PnL
+$0.32
Record
80%
558-142 (700)
Invested
$8.81
Value
$7
PnL
+$1.78
Record
54%
553-471 (1024)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$2.82
Value
$2.58
PnL
-$0.24
Record
37%
3197-5378 (8575)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.