Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 1°C on November 12?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 84¢ · $75 held · ends Nov 12

Yes16¢No84¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$75.3

Combined PnL

$3.1

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$53.58

Total Shares59

Combined PnL+$2.41

Yes2 traders

Total Value$21.72

Total Shares128

Combined PnL+$0.7

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 83.4¢	$26.05	$26.56	+$0.51	53% 5671-5102 (10773)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 16.8¢	$17.27	$17.47	+$0.2	68% 2064-954 (3018)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 71.5¢	$16.95	$13.9	+$1.2	54% 565-475 (1040)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 75¢	$4.07	$4.62	+$0.54	37% 3204-5379 (8583)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 85¢	$4.25	$4.25	+$0	27% 936-2514 (3450)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 82¢	$4.1	$4.25	+$0.15	80% 562-144 (706)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$3.75	$4.25	+$0.5	32% 290-625 (915)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$26.05

Value

$26.56

PnL

+$0.51

Record

53%

5671-5102 (10773)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.27

Value

$17.47

PnL

+$0.2

Record

68%

2064-954 (3018)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$16.95

Value

$13.9

PnL

+$1.2

Record

54%

565-475 (1040)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$4.07

Value

$4.62

PnL

+$0.54

Record

37%

3204-5379 (8583)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$4.25

Value

$4.25

PnL

+$0

Record

27%

936-2514 (3450)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$4.1

Value

$4.25

PnL

+$0.15

Record

80%

562-144 (706)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.75

Value

$4.25

PnL

+$0.5

Record

32%

290-625 (915)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.6%

84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.