Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 6°C on November 11?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $48 held · ends Nov 11

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$48.5

Combined PnL

$0.03

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$48.47

Total Shares49

Combined PnL+$0.04

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.03

Total Shares10

Combined PnL-$0.02

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$20.35	$20.35	+$0	30% 184-421 (605)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$19.92	$19.96	+$0.04	52% 5311-4816 (10127)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$8.15	$8.16	+$0.01	50% 4490-4436 (8926)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.05	$0.03	-$0.02	51% 256-245 (501)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$20.35

Value

$20.35

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

184-421 (605)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.92

Value

$19.96

PnL

+$0.04

Record

52%

5311-4816 (10127)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$8.15

Value

$8.16

PnL

+$0.01

Record

50%

4490-4436 (8926)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.02

Record

51%

256-245 (501)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.