Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 5°C on November 11?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $47 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$47.03
$0.19
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $19.6 | $19.58 | -$0.02 | 52% 5322-4827 (10149) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 96.6¢ | $10.23 | $10.37 | +$0.14 | 51% 265-255 (520) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $8.79 | $8.9 | +$0.11 | 24% 163-516 (679) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $4.92 | $4.9 | -$0.03 | 38% 1193-1980 (3173) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $1.74 | $1.74 | -$0.01 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $1.56 | $1.55 | -$0.01 | 37% 190-317 (507) |
Invested
$19.6
Value
$19.58
PnL
-$0.02
Record
52%
5322-4827 (10149)
Invested
$10.23
Value
$10.37
PnL
+$0.14
Record
51%
265-255 (520)
Invested
$8.79
Value
$8.9
PnL
+$0.11
Record
24%
163-516 (679)
Invested
$4.92
Value
$4.9
PnL
-$0.03
Record
38%
1193-1980 (3173)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$1.74
Value
$1.74
PnL
-$0.01
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
Invested
$1.56
Value
$1.55
PnL
-$0.01
Record
37%
190-317 (507)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.