Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (58%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 3°C on November 11?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 42¢ · $57 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$57.09
$3.47
Research grade
NeutralNo at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 58%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 56%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Noavg 37.7¢ | $16.96 | $19.58 | +$2.61 | 24% 158-513 (671) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100 | Noavg 40¢ | $8.16 | $8.87 | +$0.72 | 34% 193-382 (575) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $7.6 | $8.5 | +$0.9 | 52% 5311-4816 (10127) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 43.4¢ | $7.83 | $7.4 | -$0.44 | 51% 256-245 (501) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Yesavg 58.7¢ | $7.83 | $7.27 | -$0.56 | 86% 438-72 (510) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 39¢ | $3.19 | $3.35 | +$0.16 | 50% 4490-4436 (8926) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $2.05 | $2.13 | +$0.08 | 38% 1192-1980 (3172) |
Invested
$16.96
Value
$19.58
PnL
+$2.61
Record
24%
158-513 (671)
Invested
$8.16
Value
$8.87
PnL
+$0.72
Record
34%
193-382 (575)
Invested
$7.6
Value
$8.5
PnL
+$0.9
Record
52%
5311-4816 (10127)
Invested
$7.83
Value
$7.4
PnL
-$0.44
Record
51%
256-245 (501)
Invested
$7.83
Value
$7.27
PnL
-$0.56
Record
86%
438-72 (510)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$3.19
Value
$3.35
PnL
+$0.16
Record
50%
4490-4436 (8926)
Invested
$2.05
Value
$2.13
PnL
+$0.08
Record
38%
1192-1980 (3172)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.