Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 2°C on November 11?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 86¢ · $74 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$73.59
$0.58
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.4¢ | $29.65 | $27.83 | -$1.82 | 24% 158-513 (671) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $17.6 | $17.3 | -$0.3 | 52% 5311-4816 (10127) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 73.5¢ | $16.94 | $11.56 | +$2.68 | 51% 256-245 (501) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $10.97 | $11.1 | +$0.13 | 86% 438-72 (510) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $4.4 | $4.33 | -$0.08 | 38% 1192-1980 (3172) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $1.51 | $1.48 | -$0.03 | 34% 193-382 (575) |
Invested
$29.65
Value
$27.83
PnL
-$1.82
Record
24%
158-513 (671)
Invested
$17.6
Value
$17.3
PnL
-$0.3
Record
52%
5311-4816 (10127)
Invested
$16.94
Value
$11.56
PnL
+$2.68
Record
51%
256-245 (501)
Invested
$10.97
Value
$11.1
PnL
+$0.13
Record
86%
438-72 (510)
Invested
$4.4
Value
$4.33
PnL
-$0.08
Record
38%
1192-1980 (3172)
Invested
$1.51
Value
$1.48
PnL
-$0.03
Record
34%
193-382 (575)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.