Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 1°C on November 11?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $55 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$54.96
-$0.01
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $20.3 | $20.32 | +$0.02 | 36% 521-909 (1430) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $19.9 | $19.92 | +$0.02 | 52% 5322-4827 (10149) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $8.14 | $8.14 | -$0 | 50% 4494-4439 (8933) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $3.28 | $3.25 | -$0.03 | 31% 190-424 (614) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $1.77 | $1.76 | -$0.01 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $1.58 | $1.57 | -$0.01 | 32% 205-443 (648) |
Invested
$20.3
Value
$20.32
PnL
+$0.02
Record
36%
521-909 (1430)
Invested
$19.9
Value
$19.92
PnL
+$0.02
Record
52%
5322-4827 (10149)
balthazar<$100Invested
$8.14
Value
$8.14
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
4494-4439 (8933)
Invested
$3.28
Value
$3.25
PnL
-$0.03
Record
31%
190-424 (614)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$1.77
Value
$1.76
PnL
-$0.01
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
Invested
$1.58
Value
$1.57
PnL
-$0.01
Record
32%
205-443 (648)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.