Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 0°C on November 11?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $101 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$100.65
$13.7
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 72.5¢ | $36.25 | $49.95 | +$13.7 | 53% 325-288 (613) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $26.75 | $26.75 | +$0 | 36% 3004-5342 (8346) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $13.16 | $13.16 | +$0 | 36% 254-444 (698) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5.61 | $5.61 | +$0 | 36% 262-468 (730) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5.17 | $5.17 | -$0 | 38% 575-934 (1509) |
Invested
$36.25
Value
$49.95
PnL
+$13.7
Record
53%
325-288 (613)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$26.75
Value
$26.75
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
3004-5342 (8346)
Invested
$13.16
Value
$13.16
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
254-444 (698)
Invested
$5.61
Value
$5.61
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
262-468 (730)
Invested
$5.17
Value
$5.17
PnL
-$0
Record
38%
575-934 (1509)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.