Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on November 10?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 100¢ · $250 held · ends Nov 10

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$250.19

Combined PnL

$0.42

Smart Money Entry

99.5¢ → 99.8¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$249.56

Total Shares251

Combined PnL+$0.07

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.63

Total Shares141

Combined PnL+$0.35

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ME merod	Noavg 99.5¢	$184.07	$184.07	+$0	— 7-1 (8)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$16.19	$16.19	-$0	39% 53-82 (135)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$16.17	$16.15	-$0.02	77% 44-13 (57)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$9.92	$10.04	+$0.12	53% 87-77 (164)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$9.94	$9.93	-$0.02	46% 57-67 (124)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$8.08	$8.08	-$0.01	77% 57-17 (74)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$5.11	$5.1	-$0.01	46% 44-52 (96)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.28	$0.63	+$0.35	— 2-17 (19)

merod

Invested

$184.07

Value

$184.07

PnL

+$0

Record

—

7-1 (8)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$16.19

Value

$16.19

PnL

-$0

Record

39%

53-82 (135)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$16.17

Value

$16.15

PnL

-$0.02

Record

77%

44-13 (57)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$9.92

Value

$10.04

PnL

+$0.12

Record

53%

87-77 (164)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$9.94

Value

$9.93

PnL

-$0.02

Record

46%

57-67 (124)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$8.08

Value

$8.08

PnL

-$0.01

Record

77%

57-17 (74)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$5.11

Value

$5.1

PnL

-$0.01

Record

46%

44-52 (96)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.28

Value

$0.63

PnL

+$0.35

Record

—

2-17 (19)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.