Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 6°C on November 10?

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 98¢ · $534 held · ends Nov 10

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 92%

Total Value

$533.97

Combined PnL

$3.44

Smart Money Entry

98.3¢ → 98.1¢

+0% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$532.44

Total Shares538

Combined PnL+$3.94

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.53

Total Shares255

Combined PnL-$0.5

No — 92%Yes — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+52 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 92% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ME merod	Noavg 98.1¢	$181.41	$183.15	+$1.74	85% 22-4 (26)
Lucerys	Noavg 99.4¢	$169.46	$168.8	-$0.66	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
GR graynotebook19	Noavg 97.1¢	$101.91	$103.95	+$2.04	5% 18-315 (333)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99¢	$14.85	$14.85	+$0	28% 153-400 (553)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 97¢	$14.47	$14.77	+$0.3	4% 17-463 (480)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$12.26	$12.3	+$0.03	80% 140-34 (174)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$11.05	$11.13	+$0.08	30% 174-414 (588)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96.5¢	$8.3	$8.51	+$0.21	51% 197-186 (383)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$5.03	$5.09	+$0.06	11% 28-230 (258)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$4.88	$4.95	+$0.08	30% 2360-5638 (7998)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$4.89	$4.95	+$0.06	4% 14-366 (380)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$2.03	$1.53	-$0.5	17% 10-48 (58)

merod

Invested

$181.41

Value

$183.15

PnL

+$1.74

Record

85%

22-4 (26)

Lucerys

Invested

$169.46

Value

$168.8

PnL

-$0.66

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

graynotebook19

Invested

$101.91

Value

$103.95

PnL

+$2.04

Record

18-315 (333)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$14.85

Value

$14.85

PnL

+$0

Record

28%

153-400 (553)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$14.47

Value

$14.77

PnL

+$0.3

Record

17-463 (480)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$12.26

Value

$12.3

PnL

+$0.03

Record

80%

140-34 (174)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$11.05

Value

$11.13

PnL

+$0.08

Record

30%

174-414 (588)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$8.3

Value

$8.51

PnL

+$0.21

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$5.03

Value

$5.09

PnL

+$0.06

Record

11%

28-230 (258)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$4.88

Value

$4.95

PnL

+$0.08

Record

30%

2360-5638 (7998)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$4.89

Value

$4.95

PnL

+$0.06

Record

14-366 (380)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.03

Value

$1.53

PnL

-$0.5

Record

17%

10-48 (58)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+52 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 92% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.1%

98.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.