Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 5°C on November 10?

13 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (87%) · No at 82¢ · $356 held · ends Nov 10

Yes19¢No81¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 87%

Total Value

$356.08

Combined PnL

-$16.31

Smart Money Entry

83.3¢ → 81.5¢

-2% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 15 top traders (87%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$348.04

Total Shares400

Combined PnL+$12.04

Yes2 traders

Total Value$8.04

Total Shares134

Combined PnL-$28.35

No — 87%Yes — 13%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

87% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 87% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 89.4¢	$152.4	$148.34	-$4.07	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 88.3¢	$47.84	$47.12	-$0.72	36% 462-806 (1268)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 67.9¢	$27.15	$34.8	+$7.65	51% 4240-4094 (8334)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 71.3¢	$23.62	$28.83	+$5.21	89% 409-53 (462)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 84.4¢	$23	$18.53	-$2.31	51% 197-186 (383)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 91.6¢	$16.62	$15.79	-$0.83	34% 150-294 (444)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 82.2¢	$12.52	$13.26	+$0.74	35% 138-259 (397)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 75.6¢	$11.29	$12.98	+$1.69	4% 17-463 (480)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 80.3¢	$9.96	$10.8	+$0.84	80% 140-34 (174)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 31.8¢	$35.97	$6.78	-$29.19	21% 132-485 (617)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 62¢	$3.19	$4.47	+$1.29	5% 18-315 (333)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 92¢	$4.68	$4.43	-$0.25	31% 163-361 (524)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 59¢	$2.95	$4.35	+$1.4	30% 2360-5638 (7998)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 59¢	$2.95	$4.35	+$1.4	6% 18-276 (294)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.42	$1.26	+$0.84	17% 10-48 (58)

Lucerys

Invested

$152.4

Value

$148.34

PnL

-$4.07

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$47.84

Value

$47.12

PnL

-$0.72

Record

36%

462-806 (1268)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$27.15

Value

$34.8

PnL

+$7.65

Record

51%

4240-4094 (8334)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$23.62

Value

$28.83

PnL

+$5.21

Record

89%

409-53 (462)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$23

Value

$18.53

PnL

-$2.31

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$16.62

Value

$15.79

PnL

-$0.83

Record

34%

150-294 (444)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$12.52

Value

$13.26

PnL

+$0.74

Record

35%

138-259 (397)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$11.29

Value

$12.98

PnL

+$1.69

Record

17-463 (480)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$9.96

Value

$10.8

PnL

+$0.84

Record

80%

140-34 (174)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.97

Value

$6.78

PnL

-$29.19

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$3.19

Value

$4.47

PnL

+$1.29

Record

18-315 (333)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$4.68

Value

$4.43

PnL

-$0.25

Record

31%

163-361 (524)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$2.95

Value

$4.35

PnL

+$1.4

Record

30%

2360-5638 (7998)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$2.95

Value

$4.35

PnL

+$1.4

Record

18-276 (294)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.42

Value

$1.26

PnL

+$0.84

Record

17%

10-48 (58)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 15 top traders (87%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

87% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 87% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.