Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (89%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on November 10?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 11¢ · $256 held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 60%
$256.12
$8.92
37.5¢ → 11¢
-71% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 11%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 89%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $14.03 | $138.87 | +$124.84 | 52% 883-824 (1707) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Yesavg 57.7¢ | $40.98 | $63.96 | +$22.98 | 81% 210-50 (260) |
24 241532532432CTR | Noavg 44.1¢ | $129.02 | $29.24 | -$99.78 | 25% 70-207 (277) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100 | Noavg 8.2¢ | $8.29 | $12.12 | +$3.83 | 42% 117-164 (281) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $54.88 | $11.93 | -$42.95 | 72% 488-190 (678) |
LucerysInvested
$14.03
Value
$138.87
PnL
+$124.84
Record
52%
883-824 (1707)
Invested
$40.98
Value
$63.96
PnL
+$22.98
Record
81%
210-50 (260)
Invested
$129.02
Value
$29.24
PnL
-$99.78
Record
25%
70-207 (277)
Invested
$8.29
Value
$12.12
PnL
+$3.83
Record
42%
117-164 (281)
Invested
$54.88
Value
$11.93
PnL
-$42.95
Record
72%
488-190 (678)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
11.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.