Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 3°C on November 10?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 100¢ · $158 held · ends Nov 10

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$157.55

Combined PnL

$10.44

Smart Money Entry

93.9¢ → 100¢

+6% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$139.25

Total Shares146

Combined PnL+$1.6

Yes2 traders

Total Value$18.3

Total Shares366

Combined PnL+$8.84

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 93.9¢	$98.58	$99.75	+$1.17	10% 25-236 (261)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$7.2	$16	+$8.8	17% 10-48 (58)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 93.6¢	$13.97	$14.17	+$0.21	4% 17-463 (480)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 92.5¢	$9.45	$9.75	+$0.3	51% 197-186 (383)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 96¢	$4.8	$4.75	-$0.05	30% 2360-5638 (7998)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 96¢	$4.8	$4.75	-$0.05	11% 28-230 (258)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 96¢	$4.8	$4.75	-$0.05	35% 138-259 (397)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.9¢	$2.26	$2.3	+$0.04	21% 132-485 (617)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 90¢	$1.26	$1.33	+$0.07	6% 18-276 (294)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$98.58

Value

$99.75

PnL

+$1.17

Record

10%

25-236 (261)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.2

Value

$16

PnL

+$8.8

Record

17%

10-48 (58)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$13.97

Value

$14.17

PnL

+$0.21

Record

17-463 (480)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$9.45

Value

$9.75

PnL

+$0.3

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.75

PnL

-$0.05

Record

30%

2360-5638 (7998)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.75

PnL

-$0.05

Record

11%

28-230 (258)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.75

PnL

-$0.05

Record

35%

138-259 (397)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.26

Value

$2.3

PnL

+$0.04

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$1.26

Value

$1.33

PnL

+$0.07

Record

18-276 (294)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.