Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on October 31?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 67¢ · $645 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$644.59
$94.88
76.2¢ → 67¢
-12% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Noavg 73.2¢ | $305.03 | $295.29 | -$9.67 | 21% 300-1144 (1444) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 19.5¢ | $104.13 | $231.02 | +$126.88 | 51% 626-610 (1236) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $95.21 | $75.76 | -$19.45 | 50% 1774-1756 (3530) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 76.8¢ | $35.15 | $28.53 | -$2.88 | 53% 6481-5684 (12165) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $14 | $14 | +$0 | 59% 1743-1208 (2951) |
IstarothInvested
$305.03
Value
$295.29
PnL
-$9.67
Record
21%
300-1144 (1444)
Invested
$104.13
Value
$231.02
PnL
+$126.88
Record
51%
626-610 (1236)
Invested
$95.21
Value
$75.76
PnL
-$19.45
Record
50%
1774-1756 (3530)
Invested
$35.15
Value
$28.53
PnL
-$2.88
Record
53%
6481-5684 (12165)
Invested
$14
Value
$14
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
1743-1208 (2951)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.