Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on October 30?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 56¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$1.5K
$93.36
72.1¢ → 56.5¢
-22% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
22h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Noavg 70.8¢ | $722 | $779.83 | +$97.23 | 22% 291-1049 (1340) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 25.1¢ | $403.63 | $394.68 | -$8.95 | 51% 611-597 (1208) |
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 78¢ | $174.25 | $174.25 | +$0 | 56% 345-275 (620) |
24 241532532432CTR | Yesavg 37.4¢ | $119.74 | $124.83 | +$5.09 | 59% 1694-1159 (2853) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 70.9¢ | $33.28 | $15.82 | +$0.3 | 57% 13390-10234 (23624) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27.1¢ | $1.62 | $1.31 | -$0.31 | 53% 6441-5643 (12084) |
IstarothInvested
$722
Value
$779.83
PnL
+$97.23
Record
22%
291-1049 (1340)
Invested
$403.63
Value
$394.68
PnL
-$8.95
Record
51%
611-597 (1208)
Invested
$174.25
Value
$174.25
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
345-275 (620)
Invested
$119.74
Value
$124.83
PnL
+$5.09
Record
59%
1694-1159 (2853)
Invested
$33.28
Value
$15.82
PnL
+$0.3
Record
57%
13390-10234 (23624)
Invested
$1.62
Value
$1.31
PnL
-$0.31
Record
53%
6441-5643 (12084)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.