Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (53%). 12 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 9°C on November 7?

12 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 47¢ · $114 held · ended Nov 7

Yes53¢No47¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$113.66

Combined PnL

$32.68

Smart Money Entry

60.7¢ → 46.9¢

-23% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes53%

No47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$113.66

Total Shares383

Combined PnL+$32.68

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 66.7¢	$68.94	$36.73	-$32.21	54% 10730-9241 (19971)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR	Noavg 34.3¢	$105.37	$15.48	+$134.13	44% 2361-2972 (5333)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 72.2¢	$38.65	$13.92	-$10.62	53% 8691-7793 (16484)
1D 1DVSBSTDCTR<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$12.23	$11.82	-$0.41	97% 476-14 (490)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 33.1¢	$6.62	$7.5	+$0.88	52% 31278-29168 (60446)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 87.7¢	$26.6	$7.3	-$10.22	39% 2430-3869 (6299)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 73.6¢	$11.83	$6.02	-$5.8	53% 12757-11432 (24189)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 65.4¢	$19.68	$4.44	-$15.24	45% 1854-2248 (4102)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 89.8¢	$21.92	$3.55	-$18.37	36% 1176-2127 (3303)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 94.2¢	$67.94	$3.52	-$2.09	53% 4566-4056 (8622)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$9.34	$2.74	-$6.61	39% 1284-2050 (3334)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 88.3¢	$24.48	$0.65	-$0.77	39% 1298-2033 (3331)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$68.94

Value

$36.73

PnL

-$32.21

Record

54%

10730-9241 (19971)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR

Invested

$105.37

Value

$15.48

PnL

+$134.13

Record

44%

2361-2972 (5333)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$38.65

Value

$13.92

PnL

-$10.62

Record

53%

8691-7793 (16484)

1DVSBSTDCTR<$100

Invested

$12.23

Value

$11.82

PnL

-$0.41

Record

97%

476-14 (490)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$6.62

Value

$7.5

PnL

+$0.88

Record

52%

31278-29168 (60446)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$26.6

Value

$7.3

PnL

-$10.22

Record

39%

2430-3869 (6299)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$11.83

Value

$6.02

PnL

-$5.8

Record

53%

12757-11432 (24189)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$19.68

Value

$4.44

PnL

-$15.24

Record

45%

1854-2248 (4102)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$21.92

Value

$3.55

PnL

-$18.37

Record

36%

1176-2127 (3303)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$67.94

Value

$3.52

PnL

-$2.09

Record

53%

4566-4056 (8622)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$9.34

Value

$2.74

PnL

-$6.61

Record

39%

1284-2050 (3334)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$24.48

Value

$0.65

PnL

-$0.77

Record

39%

1298-2033 (3331)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 47%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.2%

46.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$103.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

203.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.