Will the highest temperature in Milan be 11°C on November 6?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 85¢ · $525 held · ended Nov 6

Yes16¢No84¢Ended Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$525.34

Combined PnL

$61.56

Smart Money Entry

50.4¢ → 84.5¢

+68% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$515.23

Total Shares602

Combined PnL+$106.01

Yes2 traders

Total Value$10.12

Total Shares57

Combined PnL-$44.46

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+28 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Noavg 52.4¢	$228.52	$245.37	+$16.85	40% 853-1286 (2139)
HE HellYeahTrader	Noavg 57.2¢	$68.01	$101.08	+$1.24	57% 735-562 (1297)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 22.4¢	$28.83	$85.78	+$68.22	38% 2400-3836 (6236)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 63.8¢	$51.04	$68.4	+$17.36	53% 23817-20965 (44782)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 66.6¢	$6.82	$8.75	+$1.93	52% 31052-29024 (60076)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 28.9¢	$20.63	$7.01	-$1.08	58% 21381-15510 (36891)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 67.1¢	$3.36	$3.7	+$0.34	53% 8618-7692 (16310)
IstarothCTR	Yesavg 47.4¢	$342.31	$3.11	-$43.38	13% 549-3630 (4179)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 54.2¢	$11.2	$2.14	+$0.07	53% 12585-11023 (23608)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Invested

$228.52

Value

$245.37

PnL

+$16.85

Record

40%

853-1286 (2139)

HellYeahTrader

Invested

$68.01

Value

$101.08

PnL

+$1.24

Record

57%

735-562 (1297)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$28.83

Value

$85.78

PnL

+$68.22

Record

38%

2400-3836 (6236)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$51.04

Value

$68.4

PnL

+$17.36

Record

53%

23817-20965 (44782)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$6.82

Value

$8.75

PnL

+$1.93

Record

52%

31052-29024 (60076)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.63

Value

$7.01

PnL

-$1.08

Record

58%

21381-15510 (36891)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$3.36

Value

$3.7

PnL

+$0.34

Record

53%

8618-7692 (16310)

IstarothCTR

Yes

Invested

$342.31

Value

$3.11

PnL

-$43.38

Record

13%

549-3630 (4179)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$11.2

Value

$2.14

PnL

+$0.07

Record

53%

12585-11023 (23608)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+28 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.