Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C or higher on November 2?

6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 96¢ · $144 held · ends Nov 2

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$144.13

Combined PnL

-$1.1

Smart Money Entry

97.9¢ → 95.6¢

-2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$144.13

Total Shares148

Combined PnL-$1.1

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97¢	$73.83	$72.78	-$1.05	57% 17226-12892 (30118)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$39.22	$39.22	+$0	35% 554-1008 (1562)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$10.09	$10.04	-$0.05	38% 680-1090 (1770)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$10	$10	+$0	38% 751-1204 (1955)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99¢	$7.15	$7.14	-$0.01	42% 938-1305 (2243)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$4.95	$4.95	+$0	59% 218-153 (371)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$73.83

Value

$72.78

PnL

-$1.05

Record

57%

17226-12892 (30118)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$39.22

Value

$39.22

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

554-1008 (1562)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$10.09

Value

$10.04

PnL

-$0.05

Record

38%

680-1090 (1770)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$10

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

751-1204 (1955)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$7.15

Value

$7.14

PnL

-$0.01

Record

42%

938-1305 (2243)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

$4.95

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

218-153 (371)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.8%

95.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.34

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.